Renewable Energy Around the Web: January 4, 2010
Welcome to our first “around the web” summary for the new year. Renewable Energy Around the Web is a weekly compilation of renewable energy news and information. Please write to us with idea or suggestions for topics at “editor at renewableenergymemo.com”.
Top Ten Biofuels Predictions for 2010
Our friends at BiofuelsDigest have posted their predictions for the coming year:
#10 – Low Carbon Fuel Standards – Following California’s lead, BFD predicts that other states will also adopt low carbon fuel standards that will spur investment into renewable fuels.
#9 – Cellulosic Ethanol “Happens”- BFD predicts 102 million gallons of advanced biofuels capacity by the end of 2010 with 25 Mgy of it cellulosic ethanol at 17 facilities.
#8 – Aviation Biofuels Surge- 2009 say several successful tests of aviation biofuels. Look for an increase in interest and investment in 2010.
#7 – Oil Companies Acquire Ethanol Capacity- BFD predicts that a major oil company will acquire 200-800 Mgy in ethanol capacity, at a discounted rate of $0.70 per gallon of capacity.
#6 – Green Chemicals and Plastics Boom – Look for big investments by ‘old’ economy chemical companies into biochemical and related lines of business.
#5 – Jatropha Revival – BFD predicts major investments in this once-maligned plant for use as a feedstock.
#4 – U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard – Congress will take up the renewable fuel banner and will extend targets into the future.
#3 – Micrcrops / Algae- BFD predicts that Lemna, cyanobacteria and heterotrophic algae gain traction as microcrops begin transition from R&D to commercialization.
#2 – Green Ports / Marine Biofuels- Look for major deals involving marine biofuels.
#1 – Alternative Finance / REITS Move In – BFD predicts the formation of at least one $1B+ investment fund that will finance renewable energy on a build-leaseback basis. BFD cites its earlier post on the need for project securitization to make project finance money available for biofules projects.
Our take? BFD’s ten predictions are an ambitious (and probably somewhat hopeful) look at the year ahead. Some, like the commercialization of cellulosic ethanol and an interest in green chemical platforms by traditional chemical companies, seem to be the product of trends that were put into place over the past few years. Others, like a revival of interest in Jatropha, are hard to visualize as we’re sitting here today.
Still others, like a prediction that Congress will pace a renewable fuel standard, depend on political forces that are notoriously difficult to predict.
If even half of these predictions come to pass, however, 2010 will bring a great deal of interest and focus to the renewable fuels sector.
And In Other News
Alternative Fuel Mixture Credit Expires. Congress failed to act, allowing the alternative fuel mixture credit to expire on December 31st. My tax lawyer buddies tell me that an extender bill is likely in the coming month that will be retroactive, but with this Congress there can be no guarantees.
Environmentalists vs. The Environment – Another report of a large solar park planned in the Mojave Desert falling prey to environmental challenges that the site will endanger the desert tortoise. Environmental challenges continue to make it difficult for large solar projects in the desert southwest to get permitted and get funded.
European Supergrid – Energy planners in Europe, meanwhile, are pondering the merits of a ’supergrid’ that would interconnect the electrical grids of participating states in Europe. Carrying a price tag of nearly $30B Euros, the supergrid would link “turbines off the wind-lashed north coast of Scotland with Germany’s vast arrays of solar panels, and join the power of waves crashing on to the Belgian and Danish coasts with the hydro-electric dams nestled in Norway’s fjords.”
(Passing interest – If you follow the link to the supergrid story, check out the picture of the solar park in Schleswig-Holstein Germany. The park is so far north that the solar panels are point almost perpendicular to the ground in order to see the sun. )
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